Fwd: Confident Or Cocky: What's The Difference?



Danny L. Smith, CMPS
512-773-6528

Begin forwarded message:

From: Antoinette Griffin <agriffin@griffdevelopment.com>
Date: October 17, 2017 at 10:04:02 AM CDT
To: danny@dannylsmith.com
Subject: Confident Or Cocky: What's The Difference?
Reply-To: agriffin@griffdevelopment.com

Confidence & Charisma
Antoinette Griffin
Antoinette 
Griffin, Confidence Coach
October 2017



Equipping You To Achieve 
The Magic Of Confidence And Charisma 
In Social And Business Settings
Confident Or Cocky: What's The Difference?

Some of my clients who aspire to be more confident have admitted they fear that their increased confidence will be perceived as cockiness. There is a definite difference between these two behavioral styles, and you will know which one you are exhibiting when you ask yourself the following question: 
"What am I thinking about those who are in my presence?" 

When you are cocky, you are guilty of some or all of the following:
  • Considering yourself better than others: You are constantly comparing, and you come out as the winner most of the time.
  • Not smiling at all or smiling only with your mouth.
  • Seldom asking questions: You are too busy trying to impress them with your own stories and knowledge.
  • Non-focused listening: You aren't listening because you are too busy thinking of the next thing you want to say.
  • Eyes shifting during conversation: Either glancing at your phone because you are distracted or looking around to see if someone "better" has come into view for you to talk to.
On the flip side, when you are confident, You do the following:
  • There is no need to compare yourself with others because you are comfortable in your own skin.
  • When you greet someone, you look them in the eye while smiling with your eyes in addition to your mouth.
  • You take a genuine interest in them by making them feel like they are the most important person in the room. 
  • You stay focused when listening to them, making them feel like they are the only person in the room.
If you think highly of others, your confidence will never be mistaken as cockiness.


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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

What's going on and why does it matter?
This holiday-shortened trading week will be a busy one for the bond market. There are several key economic reports scheduled for later in the week, the Fed minutes from last month's meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, there will be a flurry of speeches from Fed policymakers throughout the week, and third-quarter earnings reports will likely impact the stock market and may cause repercussions in the bond market. Of course, there are also some geopolitical events for the market to digest, including ongoing tensions between the US and North Korea and escalating political infighting in Washington. There is also the possibility that Catalonia may decide to announce it's independence from Spain, which could impact the European markets and have a ripple effect here in the US.  As for today, there are a few Fed policymakers who are scheduled to give speeches, and the Fed will be purchasing up to $500 million of 15-year conventional mortgages.

What should you do about it?
Watch for mortgage bonds to continue trading in a range between their 100-day and 200-day moving averages, but be prepared to lock your rate quickly if bond prices start sliding back down.

.....
MBS Chart

.....
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
Date
Report
Period
Prior
Est.
Actual
Wed
11 Oct
JOLTS
Job Openings
Aug
6.17M
6.138M

Wed
11 Oct
Fed Minutes
Sep
-
-

Thu
12 Oct
Initial Jobless
Claims
Week of
Oct 2
260k
252k

Thu
12 Oct
PPI
Sep
0.2%
0.4%

Fri
13 Oct
Core CPI
Sep
0.2%
0.2%

Fri
13 Oct
Retail Sales
Sep
-0.2%
1.7%

Fri
13 Oct
Business
Inventories
Aug
0.2%
0.7%

Fri
13 Oct
U of Mich
Consumer
Sentiment
Oct
95.1
95.1

Thursday, October 5, 2017 - Mid Day Update


 
Mortgage bond prices are getting hit hard this morning as investors prepare for a series of Fed speakers that some expect to deliver hawkish views on the future of interest rates. MBS is down -22 bps this morning as the 10-year benchmark yield has climbed to 2.35%.

The economic calendar is playing second fiddle to the Fed speeches today but nonetheless factory orders that came out this morning showed capital goods orders rose slightly more than expected, adding to market sentiment that the economy is in very strong condition and the time for hiking rates more aggressively is nearing.

Rate Sheet Impact: Worsening heading into the afternoon.

Monday, October 2, 2017


MBS is starting the week up a few bps. With the 10-year floating at 2.33%, Fannie 3.5's and 4.0's are up +6 bps.

This morning kicked off a busy week on the economic calendar. First up, PMI came in on the higher end of economists' estimates with very little to no effects visible in the data from the Hurricanes. Second, the ISM manufacturing index beat expectations at 60.8 vs. 58.0 consensus. New orders were a particularly bright spot as the economy continues to gather steam. Lastly, construction spending also beat, up 0.5% month-over-month.

Rate Sheet Impact: Neutral.

Friday, September 29, 2017


What's going on and why does it matter?

Mortgage bonds were able to stage a decent rebound yesterday to close above their 100-day moving average, which has been operating as a strong level of technical support since July.  The Fed is scheduled to purchase up to $1.925 billion of 30-year conventional mortgage bonds today, and this may help bonds to remain in positive territory. The inflation reports released earlier today and yesterday were relatively weak, and, if this weakness persists, it may temper the Fed's aggressiveness with regard to increasing rates in the future. There are still a few economic releases for later this morning, and there's one Fed policymaker who is scheduled to give a speech today.

What should you do about it?
Watch for mortgage bonds to continue bouncing higher off their 100-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate quickly if bond prices fall below that critical level.
      










MBS Chart