Tuesday, August 15, 2017

What's going on and why does it matter? Mortgage bonds opened lower this morning as tensions continue to ease between the US and North Korea. Also, NY Fed President Dudley indicated in a speech yesterday afternoon that the Fed is on track to increase short-term rates later this year if the economy continues to improve. Today's economic reports seem to confirm this, with the NY Fed "Empire State" Manufacturing Index more than doubling, and retail sales also coming in much stronger than market expectations. It seems like mortgage bond prices may fall back down to their moving averages. The Fed is scheduled to purchase up to $1.65 billion of 30-year conventional mortgage bonds today, which may help. What should you do about it?Lock your rate to be safe. . ..... Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week: Date Report Period Prior Estimate Actual Tue 15 Aug NY Fed Mfg. Index Aug 9.8 10.0 25.2 Tue 15 Aug Retail Sales Jul 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Tue 15 Aug Business Inventories Jun 0.3% 0.4% Wed 16 Aug Building Permits Jul 1.275M 1.25M Wed 16 Aug Housing Starts Jul 1.215M 1.22M Wed 16 Aug Fed Minutes Jul - - Thu 17 Aug Initial Jobless Claims Week of Aug 7 244,000 240,000 Thu 17 Aug Industrial Output Jul 0.4% 0.3% Thu 17 Aug Capacity Utilization Jul 76.6% 76.7% Thu 17 Aug Manuf. Output Jul 0.2% 0.2% Fri 18 Aug U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Aug 93.4 94.0